Tampa Bay Draft Bonanza

Today, I read a great article on Baseball America, written by Jim Callis (subscriber only).  “Draft Bonanzas Rarely Pay Off” is an article concerning the 12 picks that the Tampa Bay Rays have in the first 2 rounds of the draft this year.  Mainly, he delves into the previous 14 teams that have had 7 or more picks in the first 2 rounds of any one draft and analyzes the quality of those drafts.  Basically, the results are less than spectacular.  In fact, even the few that were good, weren’t overly impressive.  The teams that seem to do well are the ones that have a few extra picks, but not quite a bonanza.  The Red Sox last year and Kansas City a few years ago are recent examples that come to mind.  The reason seems to be that whether they have 9 picks or 4, the teams spend a similar amount of money.  I would think that it would be reasonable for a team to increase its budget in accordance with having more premium picks, but that doesn’t seem to happen to a large degree.

So how does Tampa avoid a similar fate to these other teams and turn this draft bonanza into a prospect bonanza? 

My simple answer is to spend a lot of money.  One of the common threads with each of the teams in the past was that they held in the reins and partially drafted based upon signability.  Don’t get me wrong, I can understand why signability would play into the equation with so many picks, but then a team is drafting sub par talent compared to its position in the draft.  I look at Tampa’s situation and say “they have a record number of picks and that is a good enough reason to break the record on draft spending”.  As we speak, the record is a tad shy of $12M.  The previous record was broken by 3 teams last year and I expect at least one team if not a couple to top it again this year.

A few items before I dig deeper:

  • My philosophy is take the best player available and get him signed.
  • I want to ignore signability until after the 10th round.  By doing so, I will have a lot of higher upside talent to choose from.  This gives me a little more leverage in negotiations.
  • I don’t have to sign them all.  The Rays will have a total of 60 picks and will sign somewhere between 20-35 players.  With my approach, it will be closer to the lower end.  I can take a firmer stance with these players because I will have a lot of guys to choose from.  If a player wants way too much, then I can sign somebody else.

First, I’ll start with a $12M budget and maybe increase it to $13M, but not higher than that.  I don’t think $12M is out line with what Tampa Bay would be willing to do.  In 2008, they spent close to $10M, which was third highest in the draft and since then budgets have gone up all over baseball.  Not only do the Rays have a willingness to spend, but they are also dedicated to developing homegrown talent.

Second, I wanted to get an idea of what those picks would’ve looked like in last year’s draft. 

Pick #            Player                                      Slot                         Actual            Team Ranking
24             Gary Brown                                    1.242M                    1.45M                   SF #3
31             Justin O’Conner                             972K                        1.025M                TB #8
32             Cito Culver                                      954K                         954K                    NYY #21
38             Noah Syndergaard                     859K                         600K                    Tor #24
41             Asher Wojciechowski                816K                         816K                     Tor #7
42            Drew Vettleson                             803K                        845K                      TB #9
52             Stetson Allie                                  684K                        2.25M                    Pit #3
56             J.R. Bradley                                   644K                        644K                      AZ #23
59             Jed Gyorko                                     615K                        615K                      SD #11
60            Yordy Cabrera                              606K                       1.25M                    Oak #8
75             Jordan Swagerty                        486K                        625K                      Stl #9
90             Austin Wates                                 387K                       550k                      Hou #9
12 picks    Totals                                     9.068M                11.624M

As this chart shows, those picks netted some quality talent.  All 12 made their teams respective top 30 with 8 of the 12 picks making the top 10.  Gyorko just missed the Padres top 10, but he is off to a great start this year.  Only 3 players fell into the 20’s and none of those guys signed for more than slot.  Overall, if any one team had this much talent from one draft, they would most likely fall into the top 10 of overall farm systems.  I don’t necessarily see any superstars (a lot of quality though), but what these 12 picks lack in high-end talent, they make up for with depth.

Next, I have to deal with the money.  If everybody signed for slot (HA, yeah right), these picks would cost around $9.1M.  With my $12M budget, that leaves $3M for the rest of the draft.  I’d feel decently comfortable with the $3M and the 12 picks signed. 

The reality is that by drafting higher end talent, then the team is going to have to shell out some above slot deals.  Last year, these picks cost $11.624M.  That doesn’t leave much room, with a $12M budget (or even at $13M), to sign the other 10-15 picks I want to bring in, so I need to adjust my draft strategy a little bit.  I want to set aside about $2.5M for players past the first 2 rounds, the other 10-15 picks.  That leaves me $9.5M for the first 12 picks.  $9.5M is not enough so I’m going to add $500K to the budget bringing the total to $12.5M with $10M for the first 12 picks.  The key to maintaining the budget is to pick players who don’t have outlandish demands, but will sign within a reasonable amount over slot.  Most of the players who signed in the second half of the first round and beyond signed within a few $1ooK of slot.

Last, I want to break down my strategy for each pick.  The Rays have two types of picks.  Picks #24, 31, 32, 75, and 90 are protected (they’ll receive compensation in next year’s draft) whereas picks #38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, and 60 are unprotected.  With picks #24, 31, and 32, I’m grabbing the best player available regardless of price.  Originally, I felt like taking Matt Purke with #32 would be a great way to go because if he doesn’t sign then Tampa would receive compensation.  Now, I feel like there will be some really good players available at these picks that the team shouldn’t pass up and the Rays may have a shot at Purke with a later pick.  Honestly, I think I’d wait until pick #75 or at the earliest #56.  With picks #38, 41, and 42, I’m still shooting for high upside, but I’m starting to pay attention to price tags.  I don’t want to pick anyone in the supplemental round who I might have to pay $3M.  I’m shooting for guys who want to sign for $1.5M or less.  Some names that might pop up for these first six include Andrew Susac, Joe Ross, Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Beede, Johnny Eierman, Travis Harrison, Jose Fernandez, Kolten Wong and Blake Swihart.  With the final four picks of the supplemental round, I would continue down the same path, but also try to pick up a tough sign or two like a Josh Bell.  I’d also aim for John Stilson.  Stilson might come cheap because of his injury, but was projected as a first round talent.  With picks #75 and 90, the Rays should definitely go for tough signs.  If either of those picks don’t sign then you get a compensation pick next year.  With this strategy, Tampa should stock their already loaded farm system even more and do it for under $13M.

Leave a comment