Examining: Picking 1st Overall

May 17, 2011

The draft chatter is picking up.  We are 3 weeks away from the first name being announced.  Who are the Pirates going to pick?  I’ve been hearing a lot of different names.  Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole have both been mentioned for a long time now.  Recently, I’ve read a few reports mentioning Danny Hultzen, who is having a great season.  Baseball America mentioned Francisco Lindor and Bubba Starling as possibilities, the latter being considered to have the highest ceiling of anyone in the draft.  The 2011 draft class is really strong and deep.  All these players are most likely top 10 picks and not a lot separates them at this stage.

With all that being said, I don’t know the answer to the original question.  This post isn’t really about who though, but more about exploring my thoughts on the process. 

First off, the Pirates need to take the player who will be the best player to come out of this draft.  Easier said than done, but they really need to hit a home run with this pick.  If they want to find the best player then there are a few pitfalls that should be avoided. 

• Money is no object.  The top players are all going to have similar outrageous demands.  The number one pick is going to get over $6 million and possibly a lot more.  They should pick the best player and do what they need to do to get that player signed.  For that matter, that is my philosophy with every selection.  I repeat, pick the best player available and find a way to get them signed.
• College vs High School.  Of course this matters when trying to figure out the best prospect because of the greater risk and reward inherit with high school players.  Where this shouldn’t matter is picking a college player because he’ll supposedly get to the majors faster.  High level prospects will move quickly in most cases and there are no guarantees that a college player will get to the big leagues when you want him to.  Most likely, the team is giving up potential in order to have a player get to the pros sooner.
• Picking for positional need.  It would be great if the best prospect is a slick fielding, college shortstop with power, but if that prospect is the 4th best player then there is no reason to reach.  First, the team is reaching.  Second, players grow out of positions all the time.  Third, the team didn’t end up with the best talent.  If the best player is at a position of organizational depth then so be it.  Those things have a way of working themselves out by trade, injuries, failure or position switches.
• The hardest one to determine is becoming enamored with recent performance.  Especially when picking first, the team needs to look at each player’s whole body of work and take into consideration their ceiling.  Sometimes a player will have an amazing season, but might not have as big an upside of a player with lesser stats.  It’s important to take the player who has a high ceiling with a strong possibility of reaching it.

If the Pirates avoid these 4 traps, then it all comes down to evaluation.  Evaluation is why these guys get paid and it’s where their reputation rests.  Come June 6th, we’ll see how they do.

Written by ghostsofprospectspast Posted in Draft